Central Ohio Market Brief

Week Ending February 27, 2026

Let’s get right to it. Rates finally dipped below 6%. Inventory is building. Buyers are circling. Sellers need to be smart. That’s the story.

📉 Mortgage Rates: Finally in the Fives

For a few days this week, average 30-year mortgage rates dropped to 5.99% — the lowest level in nearly four years. 

Current Ohio Averages:

• 30-Year Fixed: 5.91% interest (5.93% APR)
• 15-Year Fixed: 5.54% interest (5.56% APR)
• FHA 30-Year: 5.99% (6.72% APR)
• VA 30-Year: 5.38% APR
• 5-Year ARM: 6.35%

Why Did Rates Drop?

A few key factors:

• Investors moved money out of stocks and into bonds (“risk-off” trading), pushing bond yields lower.
• The 10-Year Treasury yield drifted toward 4%.
• Mortgage spreads narrowed toward historical norms.
• Job growth remains modest — steady but not overheating.
• Inflation continues to cool gradually.

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold steady at the March and April meetings (96% and 82% probability, respectively). No immediate rate cuts — but no hikes either.

Important reality check:
Lower rates help affordability, but home purchases take months to materialize. Spring activity should tell us whether these sub-6% rates stick and spark momentum.

🏡 National Housing Market Snapshot

• Existing home sales: 3.91 million annualized (down 8.4% in January)
• Inventory: 1.0 million homes (up 3.4% year-over-year)
• Median price: $396,800 (up 0.9% YoY)
• Builder confidence (NAHB): 36

Sales volume dipped — mostly seasonal and lingering rate fatigue from late 2025. But here’s what most headlines missed:

The Case-Shiller Index shows prices rose 0.4–0.5% month-over-month for three straight months. That’s an annualized pace above 5%.

Translation?
Price growth is quietly re-accelerating as rates ease.

Historically speaking, real estate still behaves like real estate: since 1942, prices have risen 76 times, been flat once, and declined only seven years.

🌰 Ohio Market Update

• January home sales: 6,539 (down 7.6%)
• Median price: $247,000 (up 7.4%)
• Active listings: 28,275 (up 2.7%)

Volume cooled. Prices didn’t.

That tells us buyers are still willing to pay — but they are more selective.

📍 Central Ohio Market (Columbus Region)

 Here’s what matters locally: 

• Closed sales: 1,504 (flat year-over-year)
• New listings: 2,226 (up 0.4%)
• Pending sales: 2,152 (up 5.5%)
• Active inventory: 4,164 homes (up 7.2%)
• Median sale price: $319,900 (up 6.7%)
• Days on market: 48
• Supply: 1.7 months

What This Means

Inventory is rising — finally giving buyers breathing room.

Pending sales rising 5.5% tells us buyers are stepping back in now that rates are more reasonable.

Days on market stretching to 48 means:

• Overpricing is getting punished.
• Well-priced, well-presented homes still move.

In certain school districts (including Hilliard), activity has surged sharply in specific price bands.

This is no longer a “throw it on MLS and hope” market. Strategy matters again.

💼 Policy & Economic Notes

President Trump reiterated support for:

• Limiting large investment firms from buying single-family homes.
• Expanding housing supply.
• No major housing policy changes this week.

ADP employment data shows modest job growth and historically low turnover — meaning households are stable, but not rapidly expanding.

Stable jobs + lower rates = improving buyer confidence heading into spring.

🔎 What’s Really Driving This Market?

1. Mortgage rates finally dipped below 6%.
2. Inventory is climbing after years of tight supply.
3. Sellers are testing the waters ahead of spring.
4. Buyers are cautiously returning.
5. Prices are holding firm because supply is still historically low.

It’s not a boom.
It’s not a bust.
It’s normalization.

📅 Week Ahead: What to Watch

• February jobs report
• Inflation readings
• 10-Year Treasury movement
• Whether rates hold under 6%

If rates remain between 5.9%–6.3%, expect:

• Stronger showing activity
• Increased pending contracts
• A noticeable lift by late March

If rates bounce back above 6.5%, momentum slows again.

Spring hinges on rate stability.

🎯 Smart Strategies Right Now

Buyers

• If you see sub-6% rates, lock wisely.
• Don’t overbid just because rates dropped.
• Use rising inventory to negotiate.
• Focus on homes that are clean, updated, and priced correctly.

Sellers

• Price near the market — not above it.
• Expect about 30–50 days on market unless you’re dialed in.
• Presentation matters more than ever.
• If rates dip further, buyer traffic will jump — be ready.

Final Thought

Homeownership still wins over time.

Lower rates are improving affordability. Inventory is expanding. Buyers are testing the waters again.

Spring is coming — and if rates behave, so will the market.

If you’re in Central Ohio and wondering how this affects your specific neighborhood, that’s where local expertise matters. Every ZIP code behaves a little differently.

And that’s where I come in.

— Teresa Butler
Central Ohio Real Estate Expert