Week Ending February 27, 2026
Let’s get right to it. Rates finally dipped below 6%. Inventory is building. Buyers are circling. Sellers need to be smart. That’s the story.
📉 Mortgage Rates: Finally in the Fives
For a few days this week, average 30-year mortgage rates dropped to 5.99% — the lowest level in nearly four years.
Current Ohio Averages:
- 30-Year Fixed: 5.91% interest (5.93% APR)
- 15-Year Fixed: 5.54% interest (5.56% APR)
- FHA 30-Year: 5.99% (6.72% APR)
- VA 30-Year: 5.38% APR
- 5-Year ARM: 6.35%
Why Did Rates Drop?
A few key factors:
- Investors moved money out of stocks and into bonds (“risk-off” trading), pushing bond yields lower.
- The 10-Year Treasury yield drifted toward 4%.
- Mortgage spreads narrowed toward historical norms.
- Job growth remains modest — steady but not overheating.
- Inflation continues to cool gradually.
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold steady at the March and April meetings (96% and 82% probability, respectively). No immediate rate cuts — but no hikes either.
Important reality check:
Lower rates help affordability, but home purchases take months to materialize. Spring activity should tell us whether these sub-6% rates stick and spark momentum.
🏡 National Housing Market Snapshot
- Existing home sales: 3.91 million annualized (down 8.4% in January)
- Inventory: 1.0 million homes (up 3.4% year-over-year)
- Median price: $396,800 (up 0.9% YoY)
- Builder confidence (NAHB): 36
Sales volume dipped — mostly seasonal and lingering rate fatigue from late 2025. But here’s what most headlines missed:
The Case-Shiller Index shows prices rose 0.4–0.5% month-over-month for three straight months. That’s an annualized pace above 5%.
Translation?
Price growth is quietly re-accelerating as rates ease.
Historically speaking, real estate still behaves like real estate: since 1942, prices have risen 76 times, been flat once, and declined only seven years.
🌰 Ohio Market Update
- January home sales: 6,539 (down 7.6%)
- Median price: $247,000 (up 7.4%)
- Active listings: 28,275 (up 2.7%)
Volume cooled. Prices didn’t.
That tells us buyers are still willing to pay — but they are more selective.
📍 Central Ohio Market (Columbus Region)
Here’s what matters locally:
- Closed sales: 1,504 (flat year-over-year)
- New listings: 2,226 (up 0.4%)
- Pending sales: 2,152 (up 5.5%)
- Active inventory: 4,164 homes (up 7.2%)
- Median sale price: $319,900 (up 6.7%)
- Days on market: 48
- Supply: 1.7 months
What This Means
Inventory is rising — finally giving buyers breathing room.
Pending sales rising 5.5% tells us buyers are stepping back in now that rates are more reasonable.
Days on market stretching to 48 means:
- Overpricing is getting punished.
- Well-priced, well-presented homes still move.
In certain school districts (including Hilliard), activity has surged sharply in specific price bands.
This is no longer a “throw it on MLS and hope” market. Strategy matters again.
💼 Policy & Economic Notes
President Trump reiterated support for:
- Limiting large investment firms from buying single-family homes.
- Expanding housing supply.
- No major housing policy changes this week.
ADP employment data shows modest job growth and historically low turnover — meaning households are stable, but not rapidly expanding.
Stable jobs + lower rates = improving buyer confidence heading into spring.
🔎 What’s Really Driving This Market?
- Mortgage rates finally dipped below 6%.
- Inventory is climbing after years of tight supply.
- Sellers are testing the waters ahead of spring.
- Buyers are cautiously returning.
- Prices are holding firm because supply is still historically low.
It’s not a boom.
It’s not a bust.
It’s normalization.
📅 Week Ahead: What to Watch
- February jobs report
- Inflation readings
- 10-Year Treasury movement
- Whether rates hold under 6%
If rates remain between 5.9%–6.3%, expect:
- Stronger showing activity
- Increased pending contracts
- A noticeable lift by late March
If rates bounce back above 6.5%, momentum slows again.
Spring hinges on rate stability.
🎯 Smart Strategies Right Now
Buyers
- If you see sub-6% rates, lock wisely.
- Don’t overbid just because rates dropped.
- Use rising inventory to negotiate.
- Focus on homes that are clean, updated, and priced correctly.
Sellers
- Price near the market — not above it.
- Expect about 30–50 days on market unless you’re dialed in.
- Presentation matters more than ever.
- If rates dip further, buyer traffic will jump — be ready.
Final Thought
Homeownership still wins over time.
Lower rates are improving affordability. Inventory is expanding. Buyers are testing the waters again.
Spring is coming — and if rates behave, so will the market.
If you’re in Central Ohio and wondering how this affects your specific neighborhood, that’s where local expertise matters. Every ZIP code behaves a little differently.
And that’s where I come in.
— Teresa Butler
Central Ohio Real Estate Expert